Farashin zinari yana da mafi kyawun watan Oktoba a kusan rabin karni, yana ƙin juriya daga hauhawar yawan amfanin ƙasa da dalar Amurka mai ƙarfi. Karfe na rawaya ya haɗu da 7.3% mai ban mamaki a watan da ya gabata don rufewa a $1,983 oza, mafi ƙarfi Oktoba tun 1978, lokacin da ya yi tsalle 11.7%.
Zinariya, kadara mara riba, ta yi tagumi a tarihi lokacin da yawan kuɗin da ake samu ya ƙaru. An yi wani keɓance a wannan shekara, duk da haka, akan wasu manyan haɗari na tattalin arziki da siyasa, gami da babban bashi na ƙasa, hauhawar laifukan katin kiredit, ci gaba da koma bayan tattalin arziki (duk da nacewar Jerome Powell cewa koma bayan tattalin arziki baya cikin Tarayyar Tarayya. hasashe) da yaƙe-yaƙe guda biyu.
YI RAHABI DOMIN DIGEST KARFE MAI KYAU
Kirkirar fayil ɗin zinare a cikin kasuwa mara tabbas
Idan kun yi imani waɗannan sharuɗɗan za su ci gaba da haɓaka buƙatun saka hannun jari na zinari, yanzu na iya zama lokaci mai kyau don yin la'akari da samun fallasa (ko ƙarawa ga faɗuwar ku) cikin tsammanin farashi mai yuwuwa mafi girma.
Kalma na taka tsantsan: Ƙarfe yana kama da an yi sayayya a yanzu bisa ma'aunin ƙarfin dangi na kwanaki 14 (RSI), don haka muna iya ganin samun riba cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci. Na yi imani ana samun goyon baya mai ƙarfi, kuma idan hannun jari ya koma baya daga famfo na makon da ya gabata, yana iya zama isasshiyar maɗaukaki ga taron gwal. Ka tuna cewa, na tsawon shekaru 30, Nuwamba ya kasance mafi kyawun watan don hannun jari, tare da S & P 500 yana ƙaruwa da matsakaicin 1.96%, dangane da bayanan Bloomberg.
Ina ba da shawarar ma'aunin zinari na bai wuce 10% ba, raba daidai tsakanin bullion na zahiri (sanduna, tsabar kudi da kayan adon) da hannun jarin hakar gwal masu inganci, kuɗaɗen juna da ETFs. Ka tuna sake daidaitawa aƙalla sau ɗaya a shekara, idan ba akai-akai ba.
Me yasa manyan bankunan tsakiya ke yin fare akan zinare
Idan har yanzu kuna kan shinge, duba abin da sashin hukuma ya kasance. Babban Bankuna sun sayi tarin metric ton 337 na zinari a cikin kwata na uku, wanda ke nuna kashi na biyu mafi girma a cikin kwata na uku da aka yi rikodin, a cewar sabon rahoton Majalisar Zinare ta Duniya (WGC). Daga shekara zuwa yau, bankunan sun kara ton 800 na ban mamaki, wanda ya kai kashi 14% fiye da yadda suka kara a cikin watanni tara na bara.
Kasuwanni masu tasowa sun mamaye jerin manyan masu saye a cikin kwata na uku yayin da ƙasashe ke ci gaba da bambanta daga dalar Amurka. A matsayi na farko ita ce kasar Sin, wadda ta kara yawan zinari mai nauyin metric ton 78, sai Poland (sama da tan 56) sai Turkiyya (ton 39).
Sau da yawa ina ba da shawara ga masu zuba jari su kula da abin da bankunan tsakiya sukedomaimakon abin da sukeka ce,amma lokaci-lokaci suna kan batu kuma suna da kyau a saurare su.
A yayin taron manema labarai na watan da ya gabata, alal misali, shugaban bankin kasa na Poland Adam Glapiński ya ce kasar da ke gabashin Turai za ta ci gaba da sayen zinare, wanda ya sa Poland ta zama kasa mafi aminci. Manufar ita ce zinari ya zama kashi 20% na jimlar ajiyar waje na Poland. Tun daga watan Satumba, zinari ya kai kashi 11.2% na hannun jari, bisa ga bayanan WGC.
Gudun gwal na Japan
Duba kuma a Japan. A al'adance ƙasar ba ta kasance babbar mai shigo da zinari ba, amma masu saka hannun jari na Japan da gidaje gabaɗaya kwanan nan sun ƙaddamar da farashin ƙarfen rawaya zuwa wani sabon matsayi na ¥ 300,000. Wannan babban bambanci ne daga matsakaicin farashin shekaru 30 na ƙasa da ¥ 100,000.
A cikin tsaka-tsaki zuwa na kusa, saurin gwal na Japan ya fara tashi ne da farko sakamakon zamewar tarihin Yen akan dalar Amurka, lamarin da ya sa masu zuba jari neman shinge kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
A wani yunƙuri na haɓaka hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi, Firayim Ministan Japan Fumio Kishida ya ƙaddamar da wani kunshin ¥ 17 tiriliyan ($ 113 biliyan) wanda, a tsakanin sauran abubuwa, yana rage ɗan lokaci ga kudaden shiga da harajin mazaunin, taimako ga gidaje masu karamin karfi da mai. da tallafin kayan aiki.
Amma kamar yadda da yawa daga cikinku kuka sani, buga kuɗaɗe da gwamnatocin duniya ke yi, musamman a lokacin bala'in, shine babban laifi ga hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a halin yanzu da ya shiga cikin littattafan aljihun masu amfani a duniya. Shirin kashe dala biliyan 113 a wannan lokacin zai zama mai a matsayin mai a kan wuta.
Mazaunan Japan sun fahimci hakan, yayin da amincewarsu da aikin Kishida a matsayin Firayim Minista ya ragu zuwa mafi ƙarancin ƙima na 33%, bisa ga kuri'un da Nikkei da Tokyo TV suka yi kwanan nan. Lokacin da aka tambaye shi game da yuwuwar rage haraji, 65% na mahalarta taron sun ce sun kasance martanin da bai dace ba game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Mafi kyawun dabarun, na yi imani, yana tare da ma'adinan ma'adinai na zinari da zinariya. Kamar yadda WGC ya nuna sau da yawa, zinari yakan yi kyau sosai yayin lokutan hauhawar farashin kaya. A tarihi, lokacin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya wuce 3% - wanda shine inda muke a yau - matsakaicin farashin zinariya ya tashi 14%.
A cikin watanni 12 na ranar Jumma'a, zinariya a cikin sharuddan dala ya karu da kashi 22%, wanda ya doke S&P 500 ( sama da 19% akan lokaci guda) kuma yana da kyau sama da hauhawar farashin kaya.
Lokacin aikawa: Nuwamba-09-2023